With the Ottawa Senators having locked up what they believe is their future core, there is one young player on the outside looking in this summer. Shane Pinto, the 22-year-old center who scored 20 goals and added 15 assists in his first full season in the NHL, is currently a restricted free agent who doesn’t have a signed contract. While he isn’t the only young player in this particular situation (Anaheim’s Trevor Zegras and Minnesota’s Calen Addison are still negotiating new deals), Pinto is trying to get paid from a team that doesn’t currently have the cap space to pay him even close to what he’s worth. So what is the solution to this problem?
Before we dig in too deep, one option not on the table is an offer sheet. Pinto is classified as a 10.2(c) player. That basically means he’s a free agent that doesn’t qualify for unrestricted free agency, nor does he have the service time to qualify as a Group 2 restricted free agent. Unlike other RFAs he isn’t eligible to be offersheeted nor does he have arbitration rights. He signs with the Senators or he signs with no one. Good times.
Ottawa Trades Pinto
We might as well get the nuclear option out of the way first. Could Pierre Dorion trade a 22-year-old, two-way center with a 20-goal season already on his resume? Sure, why not? Just this summer two RFAs were traded. Colorado traded Alex Newhook to Montreal for a first round pick, a second round pick, and defenseman Gianni Fairbrother. The Avalanche then flipped that newly acquired second round pick to use when the Tampa Bay Lightning needed to find a landing spot for RFA center Ross Colton, who they couldn’t fit under the cap.
Newhook and Pinto are closer in age while the 26-year-old Colton could be an example of the type of player Pinto might develop into.
So it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Dorion to, at the worst, expect a similar return that Newhook brought back in his deal. He could probably pull in a little more to be honest. Thanks to some rumors out of Boston, the Bruins (who do have a need at center) have emerged as a potential trade partner with prospects Fabian Lysell and John Beecher as the pieces possibly heading to Ottawa. It must be noted that Boston would have to perform similar salary cap magic as Ottawa as they only have about $429,000 in available space at the moment.
Trading Pinto is a move of last resort, as the youngster would be an ideal third-line center behind Tim Stutzle and a healthy Josh Norris. It wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility that if, he continues to improve, Pinto could slip into the 2c spot ahead of Norris, especially if Josh isn’t able to stay healthy. Having depth down the middle is important in the NHL, especially when it comes to match-ups in the playoffs.
The Senators do have prospects Ridly Greig and Zack Ostapchuk waiting in the wings, but Pinto is the better option at the moment. Ottawa is at the point where “the future” isn’t some far away concept, they need to start contending right now and keeping Pinto gives them the best chance at the moment.
Pinto doesn’t sign/holds out
So, this would actually be the worst case scenario. If there is as big of a gap in negotiations as is being reported, Pinto and his representation could peace out back to New York and not play to start the season. The Senators have to scramble to find a replacement in the line-up and Pinto risks earning the “difficult” label in the press that probably sticks with him the rest of his career even if he saves a litter of puppies from a burning building.
Signing Pinto to a long-term, big-money extension
That’s not happening this year. Dorion was able to get away with signing Jake Sanderson to his big extension because it doesn’t kick in until next year. Whatever deal Pinto signs in the next couple of weeks kicks in this year, and unless the GM has a big deal in his back pocket that will clear out a lot of cap space immediately, Pinto isn’t getting his big contract for at least one more season.
Signing Pinto to a one-year deal and kicking the negotiations down the road
Pinto could sign the qualifying offer that he was sent and have his agent keep working with the Senators on an extension that would kick in for the 2024-25 season when there is a little more money to play around with as Matt Murray’s $1.56 retained cap hit comes off the books as does the buyouts for Bobby Ryan ($1.83) and Michael Del Zotto ($750,000). Along with the expected rise in the cap, there would be plenty of room for a deal that adequately pays for his services.
The drawback to that plan is the same as signing Pinto to a bridge deal – it would still put the Senators over the cap for this season.The minimum qualifying offer Pinto would sign would be around $971,250 (105% of his $925,000 salary last season). It’s pretty close to the $895,000 that CapFriendly estimates is available for the Sens, but they would still have to make a corresponding move to be compliant by the start of the season.
In a sense, Pinto would be betting on himself. Another solid season would improve his negotiating strength for a proper extension, but an injury or a drop in production would hurt him. A multi-year bridge deal offers him a little more money and protection.
They agree on a two-year bridge deal
This is the most likely outcome. They overcome their differences and sign a two-year contract for about $1.25 million and Dorion finds a way to make it fit under the cap. If they can get it done before camp officially opens on September 20th, all the better, but in reality they can take it all the way up to the day before the season starts.
A bridge deal gives Pinto a little stability and a chance to show that last year wasn’t an outlier while setting up a bigger payday down the road. A two-year deal would also line up with the end of Claude Giroux’s contract, opening up even more cap room if Pinto exceeds expectations and cements his place as a key part of a competitive Senators’ team.
As to who might go out in order to fit Pinto’s contract under the cap, the top candidates would likely be Mathieu Joseph ($2.95 million) or Dominik Kubalik ($2.5 million). Not only would Pinto’s deal fit in, Dorion would have a little flexibility to fill the hole created by a trade as the Sens are looking at a pretty bare-bones NHL roster at the moment.
Having a lot of good, young players that need fair contracts isn’t the worst problem in the world to have, but it is still a problem. Hopefully, Pierre Dorion has the solution.